American Polling and Research

Springfield City Council — At-Large

City Council (At-Large) · Wave 1 · sponsored by Neighbors for a Stronger Springfield · conducted by American Polling and Research

Findings

Universe Registered voters (RV) · n 612 · effective N 548 · design effect 1.12 · headline MOE ±4.2 pts at 95% · estimated Jul 23, 2026, 8:33 PM CDT

Direction and Satisfaction

If the election were held today, who would you support for mayor?

Option	Estimate	Margin of error
Reyes	48.5%	±4.2 pts (effective N 548)
Novak	42.1%	±4.2 pts (effective N 548)
Undecided	9.4%	±2.5 pts (effective N 548)

Job Approval

Do you approve or disapprove of the job the mayor is doing?

Option	Estimate	Margin of error
Approve	51.2%	±4.2 pts (effective N 548)
Disapprove	38.6%	±4.1 pts (effective N 548)
Don't know	10.2%	±2.6 pts (effective N 548)

Universe Likely voters (LV) · n 418 · effective N 372 · design effect 1.12 · headline MOE ±5.1 pts at 95% · estimated Jul 23, 2026, 8:33 PM CDT

Direction and Satisfaction

If the election were held today, who would you support for mayor?

Option	Estimate	Margin of error
Reyes	50.3%	±5.1 pts (effective N 372)
Novak	44.0%	±5.1 pts (effective N 372)
Undecided	5.7%	±2.4 pts (effective N 372)

Job Approval

Do you approve or disapprove of the job the mayor is doing?

Option	Estimate	Margin of error
Approve	52.9%	±5.1 pts (effective N 372)
Disapprove	40.2%	±5.1 pts (effective N 372)
Don't know	6.9%	±2.6 pts (effective N 372)

Methodology

Prepared with full methodological disclosure, in line with professional survey-research transparency norms.

Sponsor

Neighbors for a Stronger Springfield (pac)

Conducted by

American Polling and Research

Field period

Jun 17, 2026, 7:00 PM CDT to Jun 23, 2026, 7:00 PM CDT

Fieldwork

Single invitation wave, mode sms_web

Frame

24,500 text-reachable of 42,000 active city voters on the frame; source commercial voter file (statewide registration extract)

Completed interviews

612 completes; 0 excluded for speeding

Likely-voter screen

Vote-intent screen removed 0 respondents as unlikely voters; the remainder defines the LV universe

Universes

Registered voters (RV): effective N 548, design effect 1.12, MOE ±4.2 pts (publishable basis)
Likely voters (LV): effective N 372, design effect 1.12, MOE ±5.1 pts (publishable basis)

Weighting

Weighted on geography, age, sex, turnout history.

Margin of error

Design-effect adjusted, using effective N with a finite-population correction (stated per universe above)

Disclosure

A universe or subgroup whose effective N is below 300 is marked directional / not for publication and routed to the appendix

Coverage concern: the reachable frame was a low share of the full frame; estimates are reweighted to full-population targets but should be interpreted with care.

Appendix — Directional estimates

Universe & subgroup	Option	Estimate	Caveat
RV · Voters 50+	Reyes	54.1%Directional · not for publication	directional — effective N 291 below threshold, not for publication
RV · Voters 50+	Novak	40.4%Directional · not for publication	directional — effective N 291 below threshold, not for publication
RV · Voters 50+	Undecided	5.5%Directional · not for publication	directional — effective N 291 below threshold, not for publication
RV · Women	Reyes	44.7%Directional · not for publication	directional — effective N 182 below threshold, not for publication
RV · Women	Novak	46.8%Directional · not for publication	directional — effective N 182 below threshold, not for publication
RV · Women	Undecided	8.5%Directional · not for publication	directional — effective N 182 below threshold, not for publication
RV · Men	Reyes	52.8%Directional · not for publication	directional — effective N 166 below threshold, not for publication
RV · Men	Novak	37.2%Directional · not for publication	directional — effective N 166 below threshold, not for publication
RV · Men	Undecided	10.0%Directional · not for publication	directional — effective N 166 below threshold, not for publication
LV · Women	Reyes	47.2%Directional · not for publication	directional — effective N 141 below threshold, not for publication
LV · Women	Novak	45.1%Directional · not for publication	directional — effective N 141 below threshold, not for publication
LV · Women	Undecided	7.7%Directional · not for publication	directional — effective N 141 below threshold, not for publication

American Polling and Research · Springfield City Council — At-Large · weighted, design-effect-adjusted estimates. Directional figures are not for publication.