American Polling Company

Springfield City Council — At-Large

City Council (At-Large) · Wave 1 · sponsored by Neighbors for a Stronger Springfield · conducted by American Polling Company

Registered voters (RV)

n 612 · effective N 548 · design effect 1.12 · headline MOE ±4.2 pts at 95%

Toplines

Question 1

OptionEstimateMargin of error
Reyes48.5%±4.2 pts (effective N 548)
Novak42.1%±4.2 pts (effective N 548)
Undecided9.4%±2.5 pts (effective N 548)

Question 2

OptionEstimateMargin of error
Approve51.2%±4.2 pts (effective N 548)
Disapprove38.6%±4.1 pts (effective N 548)
Don't know10.2%±2.6 pts (effective N 548)

Crosstabs

No publishable crosstabs — see the directional appendix.

Likely voters (LV)

n 418 · effective N 372 · design effect 1.12 · headline MOE ±5.1 pts at 95%

Toplines

Question 1

OptionEstimateMargin of error
Reyes50.3%±5.1 pts (effective N 372)
Novak44.0%±5.1 pts (effective N 372)
Undecided5.7%±2.4 pts (effective N 372)

Question 2

OptionEstimateMargin of error
Approve52.9%±5.1 pts (effective N 372)
Disapprove40.2%±5.1 pts (effective N 372)
Don't know6.9%±2.6 pts (effective N 372)

Crosstabs

No publishable crosstabs — see the directional appendix.

Methodology

Prepared with full methodological disclosure, in line with professional survey-research transparency norms.

Sponsor
Neighbors for a Stronger Springfield (pac)
Conducted by
American Polling Company
Population & universes
  • Registered voters (RV) — n 612, effective N 548, MOE ±4.2 pts
  • Likely voters (LV) — n 418, effective N 372, MOE ±5.1 pts
Mode
sms_web
Field dates
2026-06-18 – 2026-06-24
Frame source
commercial voter file (statewide registration extract)
Likely-voter definition
Registered voters who voted in ≥1 of the last two municipal general elections.
Weighting variables
geo, age_band, sex, turnout_bucket
Targets used
geo, age_band, sex, turnout_bucket — from the frame, persisted with the run.
Margin of error
Design-effect-adjusted, using effective N with a finite-population correction (per universe above).
Disclosure
Subgroup estimates whose effective N falls below the trust threshold are marked directional / not for publication and appear only in the appendix.

Coverage concern: the reachable frame was a low share of the full frame; estimates are reweighted to full-population targets but should be interpreted with care.

Appendix — Directional estimates

Directional · not for publication These estimates have an effective N below the trust threshold. They are directional only and must not be presented as confident figures.

Universe & subgroupOptionEstimateCaveat
RV · Voters 50+ Reyes 54.1%Directional · not for publication directional — effective N 291 below threshold, not for publication
RV · Voters 50+ Novak 40.4%Directional · not for publication directional — effective N 291 below threshold, not for publication
RV · Voters 50+ Undecided 5.5%Directional · not for publication directional — effective N 291 below threshold, not for publication
RV · Women Reyes 44.7%Directional · not for publication directional — effective N 182 below threshold, not for publication
RV · Women Novak 46.8%Directional · not for publication directional — effective N 182 below threshold, not for publication
RV · Women Undecided 8.5%Directional · not for publication directional — effective N 182 below threshold, not for publication
RV · Men Reyes 52.8%Directional · not for publication directional — effective N 166 below threshold, not for publication
RV · Men Novak 37.2%Directional · not for publication directional — effective N 166 below threshold, not for publication
RV · Men Undecided 10.0%Directional · not for publication directional — effective N 166 below threshold, not for publication
LV · Women Reyes 47.2%Directional · not for publication directional — effective N 141 below threshold, not for publication
LV · Women Novak 45.1%Directional · not for publication directional — effective N 141 below threshold, not for publication
LV · Women Undecided 7.7%Directional · not for publication directional — effective N 141 below threshold, not for publication

American Polling Company · Springfield City Council — At-Large · weighted, design-effect-adjusted estimates. Directional figures are not for publication.